Holiday Ops 2020 / 2021 Loot Box Value Guide
13Disciple | 13-Dec-2020
As a WGNA CC, I was provided with 200 Holiday boxes (50 of each type) for the purpose of making content on Twitch and for this article. I've supplemented this data with users that sent me their videos and screenshots.
This type of written article takes hours and hours of data entry, on top of putting together the tables and graphics. If you would like to support my work, please pop on over to my Twitch, or my YouTube page and check out my live and video content.
This type of written article takes hours and hours of data entry, on top of putting together the tables and graphics. If you would like to support my work, please pop on over to my Twitch, or my YouTube page and check out my live and video content.
These boxes are yet again excellent value. If you want to put gold or premium time (purchased for gold) in your account, I would recommend purchasing large (gift) boxes. DO NOT BUY boxes with the intent of finding a specific tank. Even with a high percentage chance, there is never a guarantee you'll find the vehicle you are fishing for.
Before you click buy make sure you answer this question: If I don't get the tank I want am I still going to be happy with this purchase?
If yes, then boxes are the most monetarily efficient way to populate your account with gold.
My full criticisms for Holiday Ops Large Boxes are at the bottom of the page.
Before you click buy make sure you answer this question: If I don't get the tank I want am I still going to be happy with this purchase?
If yes, then boxes are the most monetarily efficient way to populate your account with gold.
My full criticisms for Holiday Ops Large Boxes are at the bottom of the page.
...you are still paying real money for a chance at prizes that are otherwise unavailable to you via direct purchase.
Gold per USD Value
A note on data: I want to thank everybody that has submitted data to me. I only kept data that I could verify as accurate through screenshots or video recordings. Because of this I've sacrificed quantity for quality. This year I was able to get 3,142 total boxes entered for this data.
* For the sake of this calculation I rounded up each cost by 1 cent.
For this calculation I used ONLY Gold and Tank Value, ignoring credits, premium time, and garage slots. Approximate gold per dollar value is likely considerably lower for the smaller packages, as you are far less likely to draw a tier 8 premium where much of the value of the boxes resides. |
Total Gold Value: 2,902,747 / 3142 boxes = 924 gold per box average
If we only use the raw gold and gold value of duplicate tanks (assume all duplicates) - and ignore all other items in the boxes. Total Gold Value: 2,229,400 / 3,142 boxes = 710 gold per box average In Terms of Total Gold Value per Box, I calculated the confidence intervals.
Based on the original 924 gold per box average. Upper 95th percentile confidence interval is 975.56, and lower 95th percentile confidence interval is 872.06. |
These values are roughly 26 gold per box or ~ 2.7% lower than last years averages. However, this difference sits within the confidence interval, meaning it could be caused by sample variance.
Lets take a look at the Gold per dollar value year over year (YoY) changes. The first year I did this analysis I only used 225 boxes. I placed the sample size in this chart so that it's clear to you that the lower sample size could point to inaccuracy of the actual value for that year of data.
There is an observable trend of lower gold / dollar value of these boxes, however I still recommend purchasing them. If we consider the frequent war chest bundle of 25,000 gold for $100 USD which yields 250 gold per $1 USD. Using this benchmark, it's quite clear that the 75 box bundle is still the best value available for World of Tanks content annually.
Drop Rates (Your Drop Rates Will Vary)
Interestingly, it was spotted that drop rates were posted on the APAC server (for legal reasons). I'm under the impression that this information would extend to, and be accurate for other regions. I do not have any data here that would directly contradict what is posted on the APAC site. Originally this information was posted to this reddit thread. Unfortunately, the APAC article's direct link does not work for me (perhaps the article is now region locked). Fortunately I do have a snip from the article which you can read below.
Even though we can generally believe these drop rates to be true for NA, I've decided to post my drop rates anyway so you can see of the 3K+ boxes I've entered how close we come to these listings. Keep in mind my data set is still quite small and the actual drop rates my vary by a wide margin.
Drop Rate Ornaments
In each box you will draw a random ornament from tier 1 to tier 5 in addition to the guaranteed tier 5.
In each box you will draw a random ornament from tier 1 to tier 5 in addition to the guaranteed tier 5.
Drop Rate by Tier
It has been hypothesized that the game will determine the tier of drop - and then fulfill it with a random vehicle you are missing. Once you own all the vehicles of that tier, when that tier is pulled again, you will get a random drop of any available tank from that tier. In my data observations this year, I do believe this to be still true. I did not see any data that is concretely disproving this. Since I believe this hypothesis is true, I've posted drop rates by tier.
We took the average drop by tier and then multiplied those odds against the number of boxes to generate this chart.
It has been hypothesized that the game will determine the tier of drop - and then fulfill it with a random vehicle you are missing. Once you own all the vehicles of that tier, when that tier is pulled again, you will get a random drop of any available tank from that tier. In my data observations this year, I do believe this to be still true. I did not see any data that is concretely disproving this. Since I believe this hypothesis is true, I've posted drop rates by tier.
We took the average drop by tier and then multiplied those odds against the number of boxes to generate this chart.
Drop Rate By Tank
If you don't believe that gift boxes mechanically remove your already owned vehicles from the pool of draw-able vehicles by tier, then I've built a chart for drop rates by tanks as well.
If you don't believe that gift boxes mechanically remove your already owned vehicles from the pool of draw-able vehicles by tier, then I've built a chart for drop rates by tanks as well.
It has also been hypothesized that the drop rates are lowered after the first few days of sales. I have found this to be false in my data.
"Luckiest" Boxes
For a bit of humor I've added in the luckiest boxes again - based on average gold value. We don't have a large enough data set to show a normalization of expected equality across all of these, but I thought it was humorous to list anyway. Once again we see CC boxes actually at the bottom of the ranking again - this year tied with Christmas boxes.
3D Skins for Tier 10 Tanks
This holiday season brings with it new 3D skins for tier 10s. New this year is the Conqueror Gun Carriage, Maus, 60TP, STB-1, and WZ-111-5a. Along with these new skins, it was also possible to draw the skins from last year: T110E4, E100, Obj 140, AMX 13 105, Jag E100, and Obj 430U. Adding in the 3D styles from last year's holiday Muddies the draw rate a bit. If you were missing both sets, then you'll get random pulls from both. Because of this, I decided to list the average number of boxes to pull five 3D skins, so that if you are going into this Holiday missing only the new ones, you know roughly the average number of boxes to draw them all. Once you pull all five new 3D Styles, you are unable to pull duplicates.
Wargaming Listened to Criticism and Made Changes!
It may only be a minor change to you, but to me, this is a big deal. To remind you the last 2 Holiday Ops events saw a commander hidden within the large holiday ops boxes. On its own this wouldn't be a big deal, however both of these commanders (Simon Claws and Julia Winnfield) both took the crown as the best commanders, and best crew members IN THE GAME. This is because they both have two 0-skill perks (Sixth Sense and BiA). Hiding the best crew members in the game behind a paywall and not guaranteeing the drops for x number of boxes was a truly reprehensible thing to do and I made sure to say so to all who would listen.
THANKFULLY Wargaming has made a change this year. Instead of a hidden crew member they've got Chuck Norris in the garage, and any tanker can earn him as a crew member without any purchases. Additionally, he is not a two 0-Skill perk commander, but a single 0-Skill perk (BiA) with repairs and sixth sense fully trained, with enough exp for a 4th skill. He also has unique voice lines! WG should be lauded and praised for making this change! I hope to see them make changes based on my other criticisms in the future. |
Criticism for Holiday Ops Large Boxes
Wargaming can sell the Holiday Ops Large Boxes and will not label them as 'loot' boxes because technically you'll get your money's worth with in game goods even though those in game goods are randomized. You will likely pull a much better value than the base value of the boxes according to my data. While technically and legally not loot boxes and not defined as gambling, you are still paying real money for a chance at prizes that are otherwise unavailable to you via direct purchase.
I'm sure wargaming will sell more boxes on the premise that many players will fish for the premium tanks that are only available in boxes, or even the skins that are also exclusive to the large boxes (I fall into this category). Not all content in the boxes becomes available for direct purchase (Type 59). Even when it does we don't know when or for how long (3D skins or the Bisonte / GSOR 1008). Keeping some content permanently behind this random mechanic, along with not announcing when they will be for sale direct adds to the pressure of gambling for your chance now.
I fully expect the Bisonte to go on sale when the rest of the tree is released to the client (or sooner). I also believe the GSOR 1008 will be featured for direct sale in 2021. However, that is all speculation. Many players do not want to wait for that sale while others are driving around in their randomized winnings. The only recourse is to keep paying for a random chance at one. This inevitably leads to additional sales, but it is a deplorable sales tactic. I would be far happier to endorse gift boxes if every item was available (for a higher price even) outside of the boxes or at least has a date when (if?) it will become available for direct sale, so buyers can go in knowing how long the wait will be.
I fully expect the Bisonte to go on sale when the rest of the tree is released to the client (or sooner). I also believe the GSOR 1008 will be featured for direct sale in 2021. However, that is all speculation. Many players do not want to wait for that sale while others are driving around in their randomized winnings. The only recourse is to keep paying for a random chance at one. This inevitably leads to additional sales, but it is a deplorable sales tactic. I would be far happier to endorse gift boxes if every item was available (for a higher price even) outside of the boxes or at least has a date when (if?) it will become available for direct sale, so buyers can go in knowing how long the wait will be.
Special Thanks To:
Back4Breakfast and Bravo2056 for assisting in data entry.
I had hundreds of messages between Reddit, WoT Forums, and Discord. Thank you for supporting the data that allows me to post this type of content.
Back4Breakfast and Bravo2056 for assisting in data entry.
I had hundreds of messages between Reddit, WoT Forums, and Discord. Thank you for supporting the data that allows me to post this type of content.